By Staff Report
Storm forecasters have further downgraded predictions a little more than a month into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which has so far produced a single named tropical system.
For a season initially anticipated to be “somewhat below normal,” Colorado State University researchers on Wednesday reduced their projections for the number of named systems and the duration of activity, stating they “now anticipate a well below-normal season.”
A day earlier, the private meteorological firm AccuWeather slightly reduced the range of named storms it predicts will develop in the Atlantic basin.
In both cases, the forecast is tied to moderate El Niño conditions expected to intensify into a strong El Niño by the mid-September peak of the six-month hurricane season that began June 1.
The term El Niño refers to a warming of ocean surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and resulting low-level surface winds that can disrupt normal weather patterns across the United States and globally.
“Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages,” Colorado State University posted Wednesday. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Vertical wind shear usually helps weaken or disrupt storms.
“El Niño conditions have always been the driver for why we’re expecting numbers near or below the historical average this year,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the fewer named storms we’re likely to get. Back in 2015, we had a strong El Niño and got 11 named storms. I think that is the sweet spot again this year.”
An average hurricane season has 14 to 15 named storms, with seven reaching hurricane strength.
AccuWeather, which initially forecast between 11 and 16 named storms, now predicts eight to 14 named storms for the season. Its forecast of four to seven hurricanes remains unchanged, with two to four becoming major hurricanes. AccuWeather also forecasts three to five storms making a direct impact on the United States.
“The northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean remain higher-than-average risk areas, where storms can develop rapidly,” an AccuWeather release stated.
With a caveat, the Colorado State University forecast noted there is a “below-average probability” of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline before adding that “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
The school’s forecast now calls for nine named storms, down from 13 when the initial projections were released in April and 11 when they were updated in June.
The July forecast also calls for four hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, down from six in the preseason outlook and five in the June update.
The Atlantic basin is expected to experience 35 days of named storm activity, down from 45 days in the June forecast. A typical year averages 69.4 days of storm activity.
Meanwhile, the number of major hurricanes — Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — was reduced to one, down from two in previous forecasts.
As of Wednesday, the only named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Arthur, which brought flash flooding and tornadoes when it made landfall June 18 near Galveston, Texas.
In 2025, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching Category 3 — sustained winds of 111 to 130 mph and storm surge of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide.
None of the 2025 storms, however, made a direct landfall in Florida or elsewhere in the United States.
From 2022 through 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.
Ali Moreland 
AMBER PATINO